From a note to clients by RBC analyst Amit Daryanani that landed in my inbox Sunday:
Adjusting Estimates for More Pronounced OLED iPhone Timing Shift: Based on incremental supply chain data points that suggest a more pronounced OLED iPhone delay, we think the flagship device may not see initial shipments until October (vs. mid/late September for historical new iPhone launches) with volume shipments not occurring until the November/December timeframe.
We are adjusting our estimates to reflect this timing delay and as a result, shift our iPhone unit shipment estimates by ~5.5M units from Sept-qtr into Dec-qtr/Mar-qtr. While we note that this timing shift likely creates risk to Sept-qtr/FY17 estimates… a timing shift doesn’t alter AAPL’s $12+ Upside EPS scenario for FY18.
Furthermore, we think a delay will not change the demand dynamics for iPhones (fairly captive demand) or undermines the positive iPhone upgrade cycle narrative. We remain positive on AAPL based on: 1) iPhone 8 cycle tailwinds; 2) sustained high-teens services growth and 3) potential cash repatriation benefits.
Maintain Outperform rating and $168 price target.
Note: Because he didn’t provide several key estimates, Daryanani didn’t make the final Earnings Smackdown list last quarter. If he had, he would have come in 14th out of 28 Apple analysts.