Piper Jaffray pushes 4 million iPhone X's from Sept. to Dec.

Michael Olson joins the club.

From a note to clients by Piper Jaffray's Olson that landed in my inbox Friday:

We are adjusting our model to reflect the potential delay of next generation iPhones from the Sep to the Dec quarter. While launch timing for updated iPhones remains uncertain, industry chatter has been steadily emerging that suggests at least some models will not be available until Oct/Nov/Dec (vs. Sep). We are pushing 4M iPhones from the Sep to the Dec quarter. We recommend owning AAPL due to anticipation around iPhone X (aka iPhone 8) and a favorable services revenue trajectory...

We do not expect investors will be overly unnerved by an outlook that is slightly below consensus, given the widespread news flow around potential for next gen iPhone delays.

Maintain Overweight and $158 price target.

Note: Olson took over the desk formerly held by Gene Munster and delivers similar middle-of-the-road estimates. In last quarter's Earnings Smackdown he came in 13th out of 27. See Best and worst Apple analysts, Q2 2017 edition

One Comment

  1. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    As analysts revise iPhone unit sales estimates and push units from the September quarter to the December quarter in anticipation of an FQ1 2018 launch of new handsets, Services revenue growth may move closer to center stage.

    There’s no disputing anticipation of a very strong iPhone upgrade cycle in FY2018. The questions management needs to answer moving forward relate to the sources of revenue growth in FY2019 and FY2020. Most likely a very strong iPhone upgrade cycle will burst through the constraints of a four-quarter fiscal year as the advanced features and functionality of the new iPhone series are incorporated into more models. As we move into the so-called iPhone super cycle, it will actually become less about the iPhone and more about how the new iPhones assist in advancing the eco-system and in widening the company’s economic moat.

    July 22, 2017

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