Cowen’s Apple update: CQ2 Okay, iPhone 10 Still Likely ‘Yuge’

From a note to clients by Cowen analyst Timothy Arcuri that landed in my inbox Wednesday:

FQ3:17 (June) iPhone Supply and Recent Revisions: To the extent that CQ2 even matters for the stock ahead of the iPhone ramp in 2H:17, our field work indicates CQ2 supply is unchanged from last month at ~43M units. We continue to model sell-in shipments of ~41.5MM units (up 3% Y/Y), and sell- through could be flat to down low singles considering the huge ~4MM unit channel inventory draw-down in CQ2:16.

FQ4:17 (Sept) iPhone Supply and Recent Revisions: While Street estimates have come down modestly since last month’s iPhone update, our estimates of $49.5B/$1.80 are still ~$600MM/$0.06 BELOW Street. While cause for some concern, we have been incredibly bullish on this cycle for well over a year (and were among the first, if not THE first to upgrade the stock in March, 2016) and remain very bullish on the ultimate size of the cycle, particularly a very big CQ4:17 with units of 90MM+.

Maintain Outperform and $160 price target. 

Note: In last quarter’s Earnings Smackdown, Arcuri was at the bottom of the middle third, scoring 18th out of 27. See Best and worst Apple analysts, Q2 2017 edition

One Comment

  1. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    Forecasting more than 90 million iPhones will be sold sold in CQ4 2017 (FQ1 2018) just doesn’t match up with a conservative $160 price target.

    0
    July 21, 2017

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