From a note to clients by Cowen analyst Timothy Arcuri that landed in my inbox Wednesday:
FQ3:17 (June) iPhone Supply and Recent Revisions: To the extent that CQ2 even matters for the stock ahead of the iPhone ramp in 2H:17, our field work indicates CQ2 supply is unchanged from last month at ~43M units. We continue to model sell-in shipments of ~41.5MM units (up 3% Y/Y), and sell- through could be flat to down low singles considering the huge ~4MM unit channel inventory draw-down in CQ2:16.
FQ4:17 (Sept) iPhone Supply and Recent Revisions: While Street estimates have come down modestly since last month’s iPhone update, our estimates of $49.5B/$1.80 are still ~$600MM/$0.06 BELOW Street. While cause for some concern, we have been incredibly bullish on this cycle for well over a year (and were among the first, if not THE first to upgrade the stock in March, 2016) and remain very bullish on the ultimate size of the cycle, particularly a very big CQ4:17 with units of 90MM+.
Maintain Outperform and $160 price target.
Note: In last quarter’s Earnings Smackdown, Arcuri was at the bottom of the middle third, scoring 18th out of 27. See Best and worst Apple analysts, Q2 2017 edition