From a note to clients by Stifel analyst Aaron Rakers that landed in my inbox Wednesday night:
90M+ iPhone Ship Upside in Dec ’17 Quarter?
With the clear focus being on the upcoming iPhone 8 cycle, in this report we provide an iPhone ship summary based on using our iPhone active installed base estimates (we currently estimate 730M) historical shipment trends and the initial ramp of next-gen iPhone shipments over the following four quarters – leaving us particularly focused on the potential upside set-up into the Dec ’17 quarter (albeit Apple’s product cycle velocity attributes should be considered).
For example, we est. that the newest gen iPhone shipments (upgraders + new iPhone subs) accounted for 13%, 12%, and 8% of Apple’s pre-cycle installed base in 2014, 2015, and 2016 – using IDC’s iPhone ship estimates.
The next-gen iPhones also equated to 70%, 72%, and ~67% of Apple’s total iPhones shipped in these December quarters.
In the send-able model below we show that an 11% ship-to-installed base level and a ~70% new iPhone contribution to total ship would leave us to consider a 90M+ total iPhone ship level into the Dec ’17 quarter (vs. our updated 84.8M estimate; Street: 82M).
Reiterate Hold (!), raise price target to $150 from $130.
Click to enlarge. Not seeing? Try the website.