“Intent to upgrade” up sharply this year.
From a note to clients by Loup Venture’s Gene Munster that landed in my inbox Monday:
Last week, we surveyed 502 people in the US regarding their interest in purchasing the iPhone X, expected to launch this fall. Among the 234 iPhone owners we surveyed, 23% intend to upgrade to iPhone X, which compares to 15% that intended to upgrade to an iPhone 7 prior to its launch. The iPhone 7 data point is based on a survey we conducted while at Piper Jaffray in July 2016.
We conducted our most recent survey roughly six months ahead of the iPhone X release. Last year, the survey was done two months ahead of the iPhone 7 release. As we get closer to launch, the rumor mill can positively or negatively impact excitement about buying. If the rumors live up to the early hype, interest will likely increase; if they don’t, interest may decrease. The higher intent to purchase the iPhone X likely also reflects the increasing popularity of the iPhone Upgrade Program. While it’s still early, interest in upgrading to the iPhone X appears to be meaningfully higher than upgrade interest was for the iPhone 7.
Furthering Loup Ventures’ interest in augmented reality, Munster included a question about rumors that the iPhone X might have built-in AR capabilities.
I’m less impressed by that finding. You’d have to ask about the iPhone X’s other rumored features (wireless charging, say, or the OLED screen) to gauge how much AR really moves the needle for these customers.