Chart of the day: A very merry iPhone

For every Samsung device activated this Christmas, Apple saw two.

But Samsung is gaining on Apple. Last year, iOS share of activations (iPhones and iPads) in the week leading up to and including Christmas day was more than 10% better. Here’s last year’s chart from Flurry Analytics:

Click to enlarge. Not seeing the graphic? Try the website.

9 Comments

  1. George Providaked said:

    Quarterly report should be interesting when it comes out in Jan. However, I doubt it will “pop” the stock. The ongoing narrative for Apple with investors is no innovation, no new products, weak China sales, US and China confrontation will use Apple as a pawn, etc.

    Of course with a little word change, I could have used the same arguments in 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, ….. In other words, it is unlikely that anything Apple achieves will break the pattern, with the exception of tax break in 2017 resulting in big payouts to investors that might increase demand for the stock.

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    December 28, 2016
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:

      George:

      I view Apple at this time as a compelling long-term, total return equity. The company is continuing to reduce the fully diluted share count, management will most likely increase the dividend again in April while preparing for a “super cycle” upgrade episode commencing next fall.

      While the Street is obsessed with both quarterly iPhone unit sales and the company’s performance in Greater China, few pundits have considered Europe has reemerged as Apple’s second-largest revenue region. Each of Apple’s geographic revenue regions have unique and distinct growth cycles and I expect a return to revenue growth in Greater China in FY2018, not FY2017 which ends in September.

      Revenue in Greater China can only be viewed as “weak” in comparison to the outsized results in the region in FY2015. In that year the region’s revenue rose by 84.33%. For FY2017, I believe Services revenue growth will be a more compelling proxy for gauging the company’s global position than the revenue performance in any one of the company’s five regional revenue segments.

      I’m not concerned about or interested in a short-term “pop” in the share price from either December quarter results or March quarter guidance. I am much more interested in the slowly evolving valuation models on Wall Street that are only now qualitatively factoring the company’s widening economic moat and rising barriers to customers migrating away from the platform.

      1
      December 29, 2016
      • George Providaked said:

        Value investors and fundamental analysts would fully agree with you.

        The concern remains that the short term narrative that results in Apple stock being at near junk levels might influence Apple leadership to divert from their sound long term strategy that has so successfully maintained an amazing profit margin for so long. No other hardware company comes close to this performance without being commoditized out of existence.

        We will have to wait on tax break as well as evolving business environment in China as well as elsewhere. I presume the fundamental good will and local advantages enjoyed by many countries with significant Apple manufacturing, trade, and sales will be sufficient to weather the upcoming parochial national storms.

        1
        December 29, 2016
        • Robert Paul Leitao said:

          George:

          Apple is an enterprise with a market cap of about $625 billion and is approaching one-quarter trillion dollars in annual revenue. Management must play the long game. Quarterly results are nothing more than a static snapshot of a large and fast moving enterprise object.

          With a very strong iPhone upgrade cycle commencing next fall and growth in Services and Other Products revenue adding appreciably to the rate of aggregate revenue growth in both FY2017 and FY2018, I expect analyst price targets to rise and support a higher earnings multiple.

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          December 30, 2016
  2. Jonathan Mackenzie said:

    All this does is suggest that Apple’s market share may have roughly stayed the same or possibly dropped a bit depending on how accurately this methodology measures market share.

    What bothers me about this is that it says nothing about the size of the market. We don’t know if the pie grew this year, stayed the same, or shrank. Is this global? If it could be tied to some description of overall sales, it could produce something valuable and even point toward a rough idea of units. Short of that, this data is not saying much.

    It’s important to see, but it shouldn’t be read into. Someone on Seeking Alpha (yeah I know…) said that “Apple sales fell 5%”. He can almost be excused for thinking that when these market share pieces ignore the underlying question of market size.

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    December 28, 2016

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