Best and worst Apple analysts: Q4 2016 edition

The bulls and the bears both got burned.

None of the analysts who follow Apple covered him- or herself with glory this time around, although on the whole the more cautious professionals did better than the congenitally bullish independents. In fact, the best estimates in each category (bright green in the bottom spreadsheet) were all made by pros, although they earned their share of worst estimates (bright red) as well. Without further ado…

A tip of the hat to

  • Hilliard Lyons’ Stephen Turner, who nailed the bottom line to the penny.
  • Atlantic Equities’ James Cordwell, who missed the top line by 0.1%.
  • Canaccord Genuity’s T. Michael Walkley, who overshot iPhone unit sales by only 0.3%.

A wag of the finger to

  • Sand Hill’s Chuck Jones, whose $49.5 billion revenue estimate was too bullish by $2.65 billion.
  • JP Morgan’s Rod Hall, whose $1.79 EPS estimate was 7.2% too too high.
  • Credit Suisse’s Kulbinder Garcha and Barclays’ Mark Moskowitz, who overshot and undershot, respectively, Apple’s iPhone unit sales by roughly equal measures.

Below: The full list of analysts, sorted by the top and bottom line, with the pros in blue and the amateurs in green.

best-and-worst-q4-2016

Click to download pdf. Not seeing the graphic? Try the website. 

Finally, a color-coded spreadsheet that shows, in each category, best and second-best estimates (in bright and dark green) and worst and second-worst (in bright red and pink). Click here for the Google Sheet.

screen-shot-2016-10-26-at-12-10-04-pm

 

Click to download and enlarge. Not seeing the graphic? Try the website. 

7 Comments

  1. David Emery said:

    Hmmmm…. What does it mean that someone got really close to EPS, but missed rather badly on iPhone sales?

    0
    October 26, 2016
  2. Robert Paul Leitao said:

    For a company of its size, scale and geographic reach, Apple remains a highly dynamic enterprise with plenty of growth opportunities ahead. For the fiscal year ended in September, Services was the company’s fastest growth revenue segment and in the final quarter of the fiscal year, Europe remerged as Apple’s second-largest revenue region. Meanwhile, Apple recently released the most remarkable smartphone on the planet, the iPhone 7 Plus, that may remain supply constrained due to very strong global demand throughout a 14-week fiscal quarter.

    As much as estimating Apple’s financial performance becomes more challenging by the quarter, it’s no less thrilling of an exercise as the company ramps its investment in new product and services and millions of new customers are attracted each quarter to Apple’s eco-system of devices, apps, content and services.

    1
    October 27, 2016
    • Fred Stein said:

      Thanks for your contributions, data, and insights.

      0
      October 27, 2016

Leave a Reply