Analysts’ estimates range from 43 million to 48 million. Average: 45 million.
Nobody on Wall Street should be surprised when Apple releases its September quarter earnings a week from today and reports that iPhone sales have declined year over year for the third quarter in a row.
Apple warned analysts in July that it expected revenues for fiscal Q4 2016 to come in between $45.5 and $47.5 billion, well below last year’s $51.5 billion.
And because the iPhone accounts for roughly 60% of Apple’s revenue, iPhone sales must also be down. My rule of thumb is to look for iPhone unit sales of roughly one million for every $1 billion in reported revenue.
But most analysts see a light at the end of the tunnel. Their estimates are still trickling in, but of the 18 we’ve heard from so far—13 professionals and five independents—unit sales estimates range from a low of 42.99 million to a high of 48.2 million. The average estimate, 45.3 million, represents a 5.7% drop year over year. (For investors monitoring Apple’s two-year iPhone cycle, that’s a 18% increase from Q4 2014, just before Apple shipped the iPhone 6.)
Apple’s smartphone business may appear to be in the doldrums, but things are trending up. Here’s what that looks like in terms of iPhone sales.
Click to enlarge. Not seeing the graphics? Try the website.
And here, in a shared pdf, are the individual analysts estimates I’ve seen so far, independents in green, pros in blue. Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide’s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.
Barring any further postponements, we’ll find out who was closest to the mark about half an hour after the markets close on Tuesday Oct. 25.