Daryanani: Seven reasons to be bullish about Apple

Here's a supply chain report that works in Apple's favor.

RBC analyst Amit Daryanani is pretty excited about a disclosure of inside information issued yesterday by Dialog Semiconductor.

The UK-based chipmaker alerted authorities at the European Union Wednesday that its September quarter was coming in 13% above the midpoint of the guidance Dialog gave investors in July.

That matters, says Daryanani, because Dialog these days gets 75% to 80% of its revenue from Apple, to whom it supplies such things as power-management circuits and Bluetooth low-energy wireless technology.

According to Dialog, the revenue bump is due in part to mobile systems orders being pulled forward into the September quarter to accommodate China's National Day holiday on Oct. 1.

Daryanani thinks Dialog's pre-announcement, in addition to a half-dozen other positive data points from the iPhone 7 launch, should give Apple investors "comfort" heading into the company's Q4 earnings report, now set for Oct. 25.

By my count, that brings Daryanani's number of reasons to be bullish about Apple to seven. I quote:

    1. DLG's positive pre [see above]
    2. Better than expected preliminary carrier data points [i.e. T-Mobile and Sprint]
    3. Potential share gains due to Samsung Note 7 issues [i.e. exploding batteries]
    4. Mix-shift toward the flagship iPhone 7/7+ models [i.e. higher margins]
    5. Mix-shift toward the 5.5" form factor device [i.e. higher margins]
    6. Extra week benefits in Dec-qtr [hooray for leap year!]
    7. Stable memory configuration mix [i.e. not every iPhone 7 buyer is ordering the cheapest model]

Reminder: It was Dialog's back-to-back warnings of shipment reductions that sparked AAPL's holiday sell-off last year.

UPDATE: Credit Suisse's Kulbinger Garcha just weighed in on the Dialog pre-announcement. He adds some numbers from his iPhone 7 surveys:

We have run two surveys pre- and post the iPhone launch, both suggesting a potential positive mix shift. We now estimate the iPhone 7/7 Plus mix to be 67%/33%. The survey also showed an implied replacement rate of ~29 months (vs. the 32 months we assume in our installed base analysis). Our survey implied a memory mix improvement as well. We estimate ASPs of $632/$661 and iPhone GMs of 39.5%/40.5% for CY16/17.

3 Comments

  1. Ken Cheng said:
    Well that’s the first time a supply chain check actually has some credibility.

    0
    October 6, 2016
  2. Fred Stein said:
    We’ll also get Mac product updates, increases in services and accessories sales and possibly an Echo like speaker product, iPads are due for a refresh. The iPhone SE will continue to sell. Apple will buyback another 1% of its shares.
    While merely incremental, not needle-movers,, and not click-baitable, Apple’s long term EPS looks great, much better than the stock price indicates.

    0
    October 6, 2016

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