Neil Cybart makes the case for a car.
From Cybart’s Above Avalon:
“People are focusing on the wrong thing when analyzing Apple’s path forward in the face of slowing iPhone sales. Instead of debating how much Apple will try to monetize the iPhone user base with services (not as much as consensus thinks), the company is instead planning its largest pivot yet. There are only a handful of logical explanations for Apple’s current R&D expense trajectory, and all of them result in a radically different Apple. In a few years, we are no longer going to refer to Apple as the iPhone company.”
“Project Titan” in the chart above, in case you’re not up on the latest Apple rumors, is code for the Apple Car. Cybart, a former securities analyst turned $10/month blogger, is long past wondering if the project is real or whether it will ever see the light of day. He’s moved on to identify what he calls the The Car’s “iPhone” Moment:
“The car’s ‘iPhone moment’ will likely end up being an idea—thinking of cars as extensions of our homes—personalized rooms on wheels. While most think the way to build such a product is to simply add software to a car dashboard, the answer is actually found by rethinking the most important part of a car—the seat.”
Cybart makes a surprisingly strong case for the car seat as the white hot center of automotive disruption. He almost had me convinced.
Below: Apple’s R&D expenditures tripled between 2012 and 2016.