We could get an answer on Monday.
If Tim Cook were of a mind to reveal sales numbers for the first product developed under his watch, 5 p.m. Monday April 25 would be an auspicious time to do it.
It was one year earlier, on April 24, that the Apple Watch hit the market. To announce a nice round number on the device’s anniversary is so simple and Apple-like that I will take it as a sign of weakness if Cook doesn’t say something—anything—about first-year sales.
At this point, expectations are so low that an upside surprise is not impossible. Neil Cybart in a note to his Above Avalon subscribers Wednesday tracked the sad slide of his first-year estimates: From 20-30 million in November 2014, after the Watch was unveiled; to 28 million in March 2015, just before launch; to 15 million today.
“To say that Apple Watch pessimism is on the rise would be an understatement,” he writes. “We are at the point of the cycle in which reaction to Apple Watch seems to depend on whether you wear one on a daily basis.”
In the spreadsheet below, Cybert (2.6 million units) is even more pessimistic than most. The estimates range all the way from 1.25 million to 4.5 million, but there seems to be some kind of fractal strange attractor in 2.84 million. It’s the pros’ average estimate, the indies’ average estimate, and the overall consensus.
Below: The individual analysts, pros in blue, indies in green.
Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide’s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.
The Apple Watch is a “sleeper” product, IMHO. By that I mean it will have a slow uptake, compared to a product like the iPhone or even the iPad. I’m actually gratified that it’s done as well as it has.
The Watch grows on a person. It becomes more and more indispensible over time. I’m immensely pleased with mine, although it is not my intention to upgrade it any time soon. Is that bad news for Apple? Not if customer satisfaction is the true measure of a product’s worth!
I really think the watch will come into its own with the second iteration, which I expect in the Fall of 2016. That will give Apple one and a half years to fix the problems and make improvements.
Having said that, that won’t do Apple any good this quarter.
I wore my Apple Watch daily for 9 months. I appreciated the fitness feedback but the design just doesn’t rise to the level of “I want this on my wrist.” Over time, one begins to learn the walking distance without wearing it.
I’ve since purchased a mechanical, which I now wear and enjoy (it keeps fantastic time, btw). If the new Apple Watch design stays the same, I’ll probably wait for Ver. 3. Make it round, easier to read in the sun and give us more options with different face designs (the latter weakness is just mystifying to me on the current model).
The Swiss Watch industry data shows accelerating sales losses. Now down 16% y/y for March.
In its first year of release the Apple Watch has delivered billions of dollars in new revenue to Apple and spawned a new developer community. As a user it’s become a daily near-essential for purposes of productivity, information and communication. Product development takes time and services development takes time as well. The success of the Apple Watch will be measured over years and not months.