How many iPhones did Apple sell last quarter?

Fewer than last year, that’s for sure.

Next week, when Apple reports its March quarter earnings, reporters who haven’t been paying attention will express surprise and alarm that for the first time ever Apple sold fewer iPhones than the year before.

Alarm may or may not be appropriate. But nobody should be surprised. Apple warned three months ago that revenues were going to come in between $50 and $53 billion in fiscal Q2, well below the $58 billion the company racked up in March 2015 on pent-up demand for Apple’s first jumbo smartphones.

So how many iPhones did Apple sell last quarter? We’ll know for sure on Monday, when Apple reports unit sales.

Meanwhile, I’ve got a rule of thumb: Every $1 billion revenue  = 1 million iPhones

The guys who do this for a living have far more sophisticated models, but their results aren’t that different. Of the 28 analysts I’ve heard from so far—20 Wall Street professionals and 8 independents—all but six offered iPhone unit sales estimates between 50 million and 53 million.

The pros, as usual, are more cautious than the indies. The low estimate of 47 million was submitted by Cowan and Co.’s Timothy Arcuri; the high of 54.5 million came from Robert Paul Leitao of the independent Braeburn Group.

We’ll find out who was closest to the mark after the markets close on Monday, April 25.

Meanwhile, two charts and spreadsheet.

The first shows historical iPhone sales by quarter and the Apple 3.0 March quarter estimates. Note the tough compare with March 2015.

 

The second chart shows the year over year comparisons interactively. I’m using the consensus of my 28 analysts as a proxy for last quarter’s iPhone sales.

Finally, the individual analysts’ estimates—pros in blue, indies in green.

iphones q2

Click to download.

Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide’s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.

15 Comments

  1. Tom Sidla said:

    Excluding FQ 1 & 2 of 2015, iPhone sales growth is remarkably stabile. Further, I think it’s fair to exclude those two quarters because AAPL valuations never reflexed the 40+% EPS growth in those quarters.

    Looks like this quarter we’re coming in at around 25% EPS growth over Q2 ’14. Two years ago. That’s 10-15% y-o-y growth, on average.

    0
    April 19, 2016
  2. David Sauceda said:

    “Apple warned three months ago that revenues were going to come in between $30 and $33 million in fiscal Q2, well below the $58 million the company racked up in March 2015 on pent-up demand for Apple’s first jumbo smartphones.”

    Oh my goodness! Let’s hope it’s not millions but billions! (Insert Dr. Evil pinkie on corner of mouth)

    You sure Apple’s guidance was that low ($30-$33B)?

    0
    April 19, 2016
  3. Jonathan Mackenzie said:

    30-33 is used twice. It should be 50-53 I think.

    0
    April 19, 2016
  4. Ken Cheng said:

    Where’s the Maybank estimate? /s

    0
    April 19, 2016
  5. Brian Loftus said:

    Some typos. Guidance 50-53 billion. Last year 58 billion.

    0
    April 19, 2016
  6. Gianfranco Pedron said:

    “… all but six offered iPhone unit sales estimates between 30 million and 33 million.”

    Should that be “… between 50 million and 53 million.” ?

    0
    April 19, 2016

Leave a Reply