Fewer than last year, that’s for sure.
Next week, when Apple reports its March quarter earnings, reporters who haven’t been paying attention will express surprise and alarm that for the first time ever Apple sold fewer iPhones than the year before.
Alarm may or may not be appropriate. But nobody should be surprised. Apple warned three months ago that revenues were going to come in between $50 and $53 billion in fiscal Q2, well below the $58 billion the company racked up in March 2015 on pent-up demand for Apple’s first jumbo smartphones.
So how many iPhones did Apple sell last quarter? We’ll know for sure on Monday, when Apple reports unit sales.
Meanwhile, I’ve got a rule of thumb: Every $1 billion revenue = 1 million iPhones
The guys who do this for a living have far more sophisticated models, but their results aren’t that different. Of the 28 analysts I’ve heard from so far—20 Wall Street professionals and 8 independents—all but six offered iPhone unit sales estimates between 50 million and 53 million.
The pros, as usual, are more cautious than the indies. The low estimate of 47 million was submitted by Cowan and Co.’s Timothy Arcuri; the high of 54.5 million came from Robert Paul Leitao of the independent Braeburn Group.
We’ll find out who was closest to the mark after the markets close on Monday, April 25.
Meanwhile, two charts and spreadsheet.
The first shows historical iPhone sales by quarter and the Apple 3.0 March quarter estimates. Note the tough compare with March 2015.
The second chart shows the year over year comparisons interactively. I’m using the consensus of my 28 analysts as a proxy for last quarter’s iPhone sales.
Finally, the individual analysts’ estimates—pros in blue, indies in green.
Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide’s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.
Excluding FQ 1 & 2 of 2015, iPhone sales growth is remarkably stabile. Further, I think it’s fair to exclude those two quarters because AAPL valuations never reflexed the 40+% EPS growth in those quarters.
Looks like this quarter we’re coming in at around 25% EPS growth over Q2 ’14. Two years ago. That’s 10-15% y-o-y growth, on average.
“Apple warned three months ago that revenues were going to come in between $30 and $33 million in fiscal Q2, well below the $58 million the company racked up in March 2015 on pent-up demand for Apple’s first jumbo smartphones.”
Oh my goodness! Let’s hope it’s not millions but billions! (Insert Dr. Evil pinkie on corner of mouth)
You sure Apple’s guidance was that low ($30-$33B)?
Thanks. I really screwed that one up. Should be right now.
30-33 is used twice. It should be 50-53 I think.
Right. Thanks.
First of all, Apple makes a new form factor every other year, so the comparison between quarters should be every 2 years, not year over year.
Second, the 6 series was far easier to gin up production for than the 5 series. We know this because in the big-selling holiday quarter teo years back, Apple was not able to meet demand, which left money on the table for other manufacturers of quality smartphones like Samsung. It also pushed some holiday Apple sales into the following quarter.
This holiday season, however, for the very first time since the iPhone began, Apple WAS able to match demand within the quarter. Bravo, Apple!
Except – nobody cheered. Instead, they jeered.
“Apple’s losing market share!” “Apple’s doomed!” “Sell, sell, sell!”
What a gift for Apple and for Apple longs, since it let’s Apple buy hack shares at bargain basement prices! And what a gift for anyone with half a brain who wants an iron-clad investment opportunity, able to buy in to a dividend-producing company that’s still growing it’s net income at double-digit rates (over a 2 year cycle), and at a Price/Earnings per share ratio that’s far below the market’s average.
Is the iPhone just not popular any more, or did Apple just finally manage to match demand in a timely fashion? Which is more likely?
Joe:
I agree with you. Under the current two-year form factor cycle, unit sales growth needs to be gauged over two-year periods. For a few reasons the original iPhone 5 was a problematic handset including manufacturing-related issues. The larger-screen iPhone 6 handsets did not have the same challenges. The March quarter unit sales number, while important, will need to be gauged in terms of the number of switchers attracted to the platform as much as by the number of units reported sold.
Where’s the Maybank estimate? /s
So if I’m right, and Apple has created in the 6 series a far more manufactuable iPhone, what’s a reasonable expectation for last quarter? It’s all going to be about Chinese New Year. How rich were those cultures feeling that celebrate that holiday? I’m thinking they felt pretty flush.
So I’m going to go contrary and say that Apple is going to beat it’s own forecast. I’m going to say 55 million iPhones sold last quarter. And I’m going to say about 52 million for the present quarter. Finally, I’m going to say Apple will approach $10/share in EPS this fiscal year, and absolutely crush that in fiscal 2017.
Joe:
Lunar New Year sales are of course a factor in unit sales in Greater China in the March quarter. Among the challenges is the fact China is fast becoming a replacement market for smartphones. In my view the pace of the 4G rollout will be a factor in the outcome. The iPhone has greater value to Chinese consumers when 4G service is available.
Some typos. Guidance 50-53 billion. Last year 58 billion.
Thanks. Should be right now.
“… all but six offered iPhone unit sales estimates between 30 million and 33 million.”
Should that be “… between 50 million and 53 million.” ?
Yes. My bad. Thanks.