“The Dip Game,” found on Reddit, submitted by friend-of-the-blog Jerry Doyle:
My take: Too soon?
4 days agoApple trading humor
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4 days agoMy take: Too soon?
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on Look who shorted Apple 'Barry’s SEC Form 16F (below) shows he paid nearly $36 million for those 2,060 put contracts (equiv to 206,000 shares).…'
on Look who shorted Apple 'I’m betting just the opposite, selling puts. Some are laughable. June 2022 puts at $75 sold for $3.15, now cost…' on Look who shorted Apple 'Burry committed long capital in two megacap names (GOOG and FB) equivalent to what he committed in short capital to…'
on The myth of serendipitous ‘bumping into colleagues’ at Apple 'It is irony that around 4K employees at Apple don’t use common sense. i guess these employees will do ONLY…'
on Look who shorted Apple 'You have to admit, this was good timing. No matter when he bought puts during Q1, he’s certainly made money.…'
on Look who shorted Apple 'Intelligent man and savvy investor, but maybe too much a one-hit-wonder to continue trotting out as some reliable guru.'
on Look who shorted Apple '“strike prices or when in the quarter he bought them.” Big money has tried shorting Apple since they went public.…'
on The myth of serendipitous ‘bumping into colleagues’ at Apple '@ Steven: Color me bewildered. If anything, per your numbers Fred vastly OVERESTIMATED the percentage of folks who signed this…' on The myth of serendipitous ‘bumping into colleagues’ at Apple '@ John: That goes in spades for “bulletin board” communication tools like Slack – or even like Apple 3.0 for…' on Premarket: Apple is red 'Folks can blame the fed all they want, but this is all about chickens coming home to roost. The casino…'
Amazon Forward PE 63 MSFT Forward PE 25.93 Apple Forward PE 23.18 Alphabet Forward PE. 19.91
Tesla Forward PE. 63.96
Meta Forward PE 16.08
Per Gary Shilling, twice named Wall Street’s top economist in a poll conducted by Institutional Investor magazine, circa 1983.
Hopefully we’re invested, not over-extended. Hopefully this turbulence does two things: Make buybacks more effective; shake out the fluff.
“If equity prices were always rational all the time, there would be fewer opportunities for real gains.,.”
Boy, do I disagree! Apple, for example, would have grown just as powerfully and be every bit as valuable if we didn’t have this insane circus: A growing company is a growing company, and for those not growing, a dividend is a dividend.
That’s not precisely what I said. I don’t do “price targets”. What I said at the time I wrote that was that I believe Apple should be valued at $300/share, Not sure when I said that, but it was around the time Apple hit its ATH, and just about the whole of tech was valued much, much higher than presently.
Why does when I said it matter? One of the variables for determining valuation is the valuation of similar products and services. When everything sinks, relative valuation also sinks.
So looking at relative valuation, IMHO Apple should be valued at roughly twice today’s value, or (142.56×2=) ~$285/share.
Note that some of that is “forward looking” value. Just as AMZN is granted a premium on its valuation for future growth, so should Apple. Of course, AMZN’s premium is based more on growth in revenue, while Apple’s premium is based more on growth in EPS.
Again, I only sell.
If I recall correctly, that quite is attributable to John Maynard Keynes, circa 1936.
It’s a great line.
Keynes also said:
Long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead.