“The Dip Game,” found on Reddit, submitted by friend-of-the-blog Jerry Doyle:
My take: Too soon?
2 months agoApple trading humor
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2 months agoMy take: Too soon?
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on Premarket: Apple is red 'Volume was light, and Apple closed nicely in the green at $138.93. Did AAPL bottom out two weeks ago? Maybe.'
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on After USC and UCLA joined the Big Ten, Apple made phone call 'Tim Cook went to Auburn (Western Division SEC – grew up in football country) Federighi – aka Hair Force One…' on Apple’s iPhone 14 is already a hot ticket item among Chinese scalpers '@ John: “When money is tighter people…go for quality.” We’ll see. The stronger dollar is testing that premise. Apple just…' on J.P. Morgan lowers Apple forecasts, but sticks with $200 price target '@ Fred: Interesting that you should mention that. Apple just raised the iPhone price in Japan by the last year’s…'
on Premarket: Apple is red 'Monday being a holiday I don’t expect much change today. Volume looks light.' on Apple’s iPhone 14 is already a hot ticket item among Chinese scalpers 'I’ll be in line for an iPhone 14. I get a new iPhone about every three years. I could get…'
Amazon Forward PE 63 MSFT Forward PE 25.93 Apple Forward PE 23.18 Alphabet Forward PE. 19.91
Tesla Forward PE. 63.96
Meta Forward PE 16.08
Per Gary Shilling, twice named Wall Street’s top economist in a poll conducted by Institutional Investor magazine, circa 1983.
Hopefully we’re invested, not over-extended. Hopefully this turbulence does two things: Make buybacks more effective; shake out the fluff.
“If equity prices were always rational all the time, there would be fewer opportunities for real gains.,.”
Boy, do I disagree! Apple, for example, would have grown just as powerfully and be every bit as valuable if we didn’t have this insane circus: A growing company is a growing company, and for those not growing, a dividend is a dividend.
That’s not precisely what I said. I don’t do “price targets”. What I said at the time I wrote that was that I believe Apple should be valued at $300/share, Not sure when I said that, but it was around the time Apple hit its ATH, and just about the whole of tech was valued much, much higher than presently.
Why does when I said it matter? One of the variables for determining valuation is the valuation of similar products and services. When everything sinks, relative valuation also sinks.
So looking at relative valuation, IMHO Apple should be valued at roughly twice today’s value, or (142.56×2=) ~$285/share.
Note that some of that is “forward looking” value. Just as AMZN is granted a premium on its valuation for future growth, so should Apple. Of course, AMZN’s premium is based more on growth in revenue, while Apple’s premium is based more on growth in EPS.
Again, I only sell.
If I recall correctly, that quite is attributable to John Maynard Keynes, circa 1936.
It’s a great line.
Keynes also said:
Long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead.