Handicapping Apple’s September 2021 earnings

Between 30% top line growth and aggressive share buybacks, Wall Street is looking for Apple to report Thursday that EPS grew 70% in fiscal Q4.

The independents at Estimize and Apple 3.0, who are usually better at this than the professional analysts, expect earnings per share to have grown 80% or more.

(click to enlarge)

I’ll post my full spreadsheet — with individual analyst’s estimates — tomorrow morning. We’ll find out after the markets close who was closer to the mark.

I’ll be monitoring the conference call with analysts, and you can too. Tune in here Thursday at 5 p.m. Eastern, 2 p.m. Pacific.

15 Comments

Jeff F said:

I’m not expecting anything post-earnings from WS, which has ignored 3 monster earnings reports this year.

Institutions aren’t nearly as interested in AAPL as they are in MSFT, and that probably is the best explanation for the former’s stock price in 2021.

5

October 27, 2021
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- Joseph Bland said:
  
  @ Jeff:
  
  Bullseye on the institutional stockholders, who are far more heavily invested in MSFT than in AAPL. But Microsoft just flat doesn’t have the runway Apple does, as will become increasingly apparent over the years to come. Apple’s a much bigger company and it’s growing just as fast.
  
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  October 27, 2021
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Jeff F said:

Maybe Tim Cook will announce the sale of 100,000 MacBook Pros to Hertz tomorrow. That should be good for $200B gain in market cap. /s

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October 27, 2021
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Daniel Epstein said:

If Apple has a great report and strong forward guidance then the market might have to respond positively. Unlike some previous recent quarters it looks like good earning reports have received positive responses from the market. Not completely sell the news responses. I think the worries about supply constraint are overblown in Apple’s case. Part of the issue is due to strong sales demand and not just lack of supply. Apple is getting almost no credit for strong product introductions for this period. People seem to think about problems more than positives. Apple typically surprises when that is happening.

4

October 27, 2021
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Michael Goldfeder said:

While Apple might not get full credit from the WS crowd, they’re selling products that consumers are clamoring for and demand continues to be robust.

I’m expecting revenues and EPS that are going to wow even the most parsimonious Apple analysts. Earnings talk and BS walks!

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October 27, 2021
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Robert Paul Leitao said:

Fundamentals win long-term. According to an article in Barron’s this morning, Katy Huberty expects forward estimates to rise following the release of earnings, but results and Apple’s current approach to forward guidance may not be an immediate catalyst for the share price. We’ll know tomorrow. Meanwhile, I’m focused on free cash flow. As long as FCF is rising, it’s all good for long-term shareholders.

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October 27, 2021
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Robert Paul Leitao said:

This just came across the wires: Morgan Stanley trimmed its price target on Apple from $168 to $166. I’m not going to forecast the market’s response to earnings and guidance tomorrow. We’ll see how the market responds. I am confident the share price will move appreciable higher over the next 9 to 12 months. Morgan Stanley is maintaining an overweight rating on the shares.

3

October 27, 2021
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- David Emery said:
  
  I’m always amused by a 1%-2% change in price targets. But then, I guess the customer base for these kinds of things aren’t sophisticated enough to understand that’s well within the likely margin of error for such forecasts. Kudos to those Very Few analysts who do provide some notion of ‘statistics’ on their model, and Bronx Cheers to those that pretend their models are accurate to 3 or more significant digits.
  
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  October 27, 2021
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Kemble Widmer said:

Since this is the second cycle of 5g phones and growth still likely and evident, and broad momentum across product lines, I feel there will be less “great quarter but how will they grow next year-ism” (ie less concern about tough compares).
We’ll see.

1

October 27, 2021
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- Robert Paul Leitao said:
  
  Kemble: It’s anticipated the iPhone 14 series will have a conspicuous form change. It will also be the third model year of 5G iPhones. That will match-up with much greater 5G availability in the US. It’s among the reasons I’m expecting share price appreciation in CY2022. The carriers will remain eager to lock-in customers on multi-year, premium cellular service contracts through attractive trade-in promotions.
  
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  October 27, 2021
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Dan Scropos said:

Loose model shows me $1.41 on the low end tomorrow and $1.51 on the high end.

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October 27, 2021
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- Gregg Thurman said:
  
  Funny you should report your “loose” model range at 1.41 to 1.51. My estimate is 1.41, which is higher than estimize.com consensus, WS consensus and Thompson consensus.
  
  I am very comfortable with that.
  
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  October 27, 2021
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Gregg Thurman said:

Revenue: 90.501
EPS: 1.44 (revised)

2

October 27, 2021
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- Troy Thoman said:
  
  I’m at 90B too. I ordered an iPhone late but it still arrived by the last day in the quarter, i think the iPhone number will be big. I think you’ll be closer to actual EPS than my 1.30s estimate.
  
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  October 28, 2021
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Bart Yee said:

@Dan, @Gregg, @Troy

Have you all submitted at least Gross Revenue and EPS numbers to Philip, if not the rest of your models? Get them in quick!

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October 28, 2021
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