Apple at $213: Look who’s underwater now

14 institutions advised their clients to skip this year’s $70 (50%) run-up, including Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank.

Below: My full list of Apple price targets, as accurate and up-to-date* as I can make it. Corrections appreciated.

apple analysts underwater 213

Click to enlarge. I rely on *TipRanks ($) for the estimates of an analyst who shall remain nameless (long story).

Looking a the bottom of the pile, Rosenblatt’s Jun Zhang reiterated his market-low $150 target at the end of July. I’ve pinged  Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research ($170), but haven’t heard from him since April.

See also: Who is Pierre Ferragu and what is New Street Research?

11 Comments

  1. Michael Thompson said:

    And the next time that Jun Zhang downgrades Apple (within 60 days), the market will send Apple down several dollars or more.

    At some point repeated wrongness must be disqualifying. Roderick Hall of Goldman Sachs is a real honest truth teller. Nope.

    1
    September 6, 2019
  2. Michael Thompson said:

    Degenerate long-term Apple bear Tim Long, formerly of BMO, is now the analyst covering Apple at Barclays. He took over for departed loser and long-term Apple bear Mark Moskowitz.

    The analysts are just following the marching orders of their bosses. How else can one explain back to back consistently wrong bearish Apple analysts at Barclays?

    1
    September 6, 2019
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:

      Michael:

      In my observation, the more bearish analysts tend to focus primarily on the iPhone franchise and its expected near-term performance in their valuation models. While it’s obvious to most of us who follow the company Apple isn’t pinning its future on the iPhone (quite the contrary!), these bearish models will fuel upside in the share price as that valuation approach is proven to be flawed.

      Although Apple is broadly held by institutions, it’s also thinly held at this time. In other words, many institutions are decidedly underweight Apple. Combined with the ongoing reduction in the fully diluted share count, this creates a very attractive opportunity for long-term investors.

      I don’t mind the bearish valuation models. The cautious sentiment creates opportunities for investors who give far more weight to the value of Apple’s customer relationships in their analysis than iPhone unit sales in any given quarter or fiscal year. The bears help create the opportunities for astute and knowledgable investors.

      4
      September 6, 2019
      • Michael Thompson said:

        @Robert Please never get offended about my repeated diatribes against long-term bearish Apple analysts or equity analysts in general, because I consider your work to be top of the line.

        Yes, the bearish analyst’s iPhone obsession is laughable and yesterday’s news. iPhone will continue to provide long-term revenue and income for Apple and its shareholders, but it has possibly already transitioned Into a legacy business for Apple. Each year Apple’s revenue stream will become progressively more diversified and thus we will achieve a valuation more akin to what we deserve: 25X earnings.

        Hopefully after we hit $48-$50 billion in Services revenue during calendar year 2020, Tim Cook will issue another statement predicting a doubling of Services revenue from $50 to $100 billion over the next 4-5 years.

        By following the patent trail of Project Titan,, I believe that Apple is building (a contract manufacturer will do the actual building) a complete car or cars that will be unveiled within several years. It’s possible that the Apple Car will do to the car industry what the iPhone did to the cellphone industry: upend it and take a large part of the profits of the industry. Car companies have been poorly managed for a long time and they do not have the resources or technological know how (integrated hardware and software) to compete with Apple. Did you see that arch rivals Mercedes and BMW are working together on autonomous driving? They have no choice, they can’t compete against Apple alone and likely won’t be able to compete with Apple’s resources together.

        The revenue increase that Apple can expect from expanded services, Apple car/s, growth in wearables and other products in the future, will take us over $300 billion and then over $400+ billion in annual revenue in a relatively short time period.

        I understand about the bearish analysts creating buying opportunities, but my frustration is in the market moving downgrades from the same set of characters over the course of years, with no accountability from the media about their repeated wrongness. They should be forced to defend their their previous statements over the years and while doing so, take a credibility hit.

        In the end as Apple gets to a more diversified and faster growing revenue stream, long-term Apple bulls will be doing all of the laughing and we will be wondering whatever happened to the cast of losers.

        1
        September 6, 2019
        • Robert Paul Leitao said:

          Michael:

          Thank you for the thoughtful response. I don’t know if we’ll see an earnings multiple of 25x ttm EPS for Apple. I’ll be quite satisfied if the multiple rises to 20x – 22x trailing earnings on a consistent basis with continuing reductions in the fully diluted share count.

          For all of the reasons you mentioned (and a few more!) short-sighted analysts are not doing their clients or the public much good. It does, however, create buying opportunities for those acquiring shares with a long-term perspective.

          In my view, what moves the shares higher is net income growth and anticipated net income growth. All the signs I’m seeing suggest strong net income growth in FY2020 (which begins before the end of this month) and in FY2021. Combined with the continuing reduction in the fully diluted share count, and I’m looking for a share price as early as two years from now that would have only been mentioned in hushed tones as recently as two years ago. That’s right. I think you know the price.

          1
          September 6, 2019
          • John Konopka said:

            It is not just the analysts, I had an account manager a few years ago who recommended that I get out of AAPL as it would no longer grow. Since then it has much more than doubled. What is with these guys?

            0
            September 6, 2019
            • Mark Visnic said:

              For whom did your “account manager” work? If it was for Barclay’s, DB’s, Goldman’s AYCO ro some other bearish firm, you have your answer.

              1
              September 6, 2019
          • Mark Visnic said:

            $360 in 2021 is my price Robert.

            1
            September 6, 2019
    • Mark Visnic said:

      Same goes for Deutsche Bank. Bernstein isn’t far ahead of them. DB, Barclays, Rosenblatt, Goldman and Bernstein are in the business for something other than assessing companies accurately.

      1
      September 6, 2019
  3. John Butt said:

    PED, your chart would be interesting with a column showing each analysts prediction just prior to the last quarterly results. Ie a fair comparison

    0
    September 6, 2019
  4. T R said:

    “Combined with the continuing reduction in the fully diluted share count, and I’m looking for a share price as early as two years from now that would have only been mentioned in hushed tones as recently as two years ago. That’s right. I think you know the price.”

    Price? RPL, Any hints for the less observant or intuitive – me? TR

    0
    September 6, 2019

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