Apple 3.0: iPhone revenue fell 15% last quarter (fiscal Q1 2019)

Despite higher average selling prices, analysts expect iPhone receipts to hit levels not seen since 2016.

Apple is scheduled to quarterly sales for fiscal Q1 2019 next week.

In the old days, I’d be hounding the analysts about now for their latest iPhone unit sales estimates. Under Apple’s new reporting regime—no official unit sales numbers, no ASPs—I’ll have to make do with their iPhone revenue estimates.

The fiscal Q1 2019 estimates from the 18 analysts I’ve heard from so far—10 Wall Street professionals and 8 independents—range from $51.6 billion to $54 billion. Average: $52.5 billion, down 15% year over year.

To put that in context, the corrected* chart below shows seven years of iPhone sales and the percentage change from the year before. (Click on the column labeled “Year over year” to see growth or shrinkage.)

Not seeing the interactive chart at all? Click here.

Below: The individual analysts estimates, pros in blue, indies in green. (Click to enlarge.)

iphone estimates Q1 2019

We’ll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its earnings next Tuesday, Jan. 29, about 30 minutes after the closing bell.

*Dumb math error in Thursday’s version. Thanks friend-of-the-blog Daniel Tello for catching it.


  1. Turley Muller said:
    Actually, iPhone revenue was 61.1B last year. Apple reclassified deferrals. They moved 500M into Services. I think folks forgot iPhone revenue will have a ~500M headwind for Q1.

    January 25, 2019

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