Dediu: Apple’s demise deferred

Thanks to the vastness of Apple’s user base and the loyalty its brand engenders.

From a note posted Thursday on Horace Dediu’s Asymco blog:

The last quarter of 2016 was Apple’s biggest ever. $78.4 billion in revenues. 78.3 million iPhones. Both records. Earnings of $3.36  ((On shares priced at the time around $105 or 3.2% yield quarterly earnings(!)) and cash reached new highs. The growth was modest but Services is now not just the second largest revenue but also the fastest growing, on track to doubling in four years.

The reason for this is the vastness of Apple’s user base coupled with the loyalty the brand engenders. The company reached one billion active devices more than a year ago and is quite likely to have nearly a billion users. Not just any billion either–the best billion most probably.

The realization that Apple benefits from extreme quantity and quality of customers has led some observers to defer the imminence of Apple’s demise. Share prices have risen lately to new highs and the ratio between these prices and earnings have started to come closer to the average of other large companies.

But enough with the reductio ad absurdum. Let’s look at the next quarter.

Below: Dediu’s estimates for Apple’s fiscal Q2 2017.

Rev ($B) 53.4
EPS ($/share) 1.96
iPhone (thousand units) 53,100
iPad (thousand units) 9,900
Mac (thousand units) 4,100
Watch (thousand units) 2,300
Services ($ million) 7,129
Other products ($ million) 2,300
Gross margin (%) 37.8

Watch this space for more analysts’ estimates. We’ll find out who was closest to the mark after the markets close on Tuesday May 2.

See Dediu’s Predicting The Second Quarter for his chart comparing Apple’s guided results with actual results over the past 24 quarters.

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